Related provisions for IFPRU 4.6.20
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The FCA considers that, until more promising account level arrears data is collected, enabling firms to better explain the movement in their arrears rate over time, the likelihood of firms being able to develop a compliant variable scalar approach for non-mortgage retail portfolios is low. This is because of the difficulty that firms have in distinguishing between movements in default rates that result from cyclical factors and those that result from non-cyclical reasons for these
The FCA expects a firm to consider the following issues when seeking to apply a variable scalar approach for UK mortgages:(1) in respect of Principle 2 (IFPRU 4.6.5 G), the commonly used Council for Mortgage Lenders database was based on arrears data and not defaults during a period, and the use of these data without further analysis and adjustment can undermine the accuracy of any calculations; and(2) in respect of Principle 3 (IFPRU 4.6.5 G), the historical data time period
When using historical mortgage data as a key input into variable scalar models, the FCA expects a firm to:(1) carry out sensitivity analysis identifying the implications of using different cut-off dates for the start of the reference data set; and(2) justify the appropriateness of its choice of cut-off date.